A recent paper from the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) argues that official UK estimates of the cost of achieving net zero by 2050 are badly underestimated and that the true bill will likely exceed £7–9 trillion in gross cash terms (equivalent to £267,000 to £315,000 per household).

The author, David Turver, traces the successive estimates from the Treasury, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the National Energy System Operator (NESO) and the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) showing how their headline numbers have fallen as a result of methodologies and assumptions that have shifted from gross costs to narrow “incremental” costs versus baselines.

Turver criticises what he labels as “heroic” assumptions on renewables, heat pump and EV capital costs, very low discount rates and highly optimistic load factors, which not only together grossly inflate supposed operating savings but also suppress capital requirements.

NESO’s 2025 analysis is highlighted as implying £7.6 trillion in gross costs, rising with a realistic cost of capital, yet still relying on understated renewable costs and overstated carbon prices for gas. Turver’s paper concludes that policymakers are “twisting the truth”, and that a credible debate requires far greater transparency and realism on both upfront capital costs and operating savings claims.

The full paper is available to download here:

https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cost-of-Net-Zero-Turver-1.pdf